Trends in non-communicable disease risk factors and premature mortality in Pacific Island countries and predictive modelling of effects of inaction and control interventions

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a major cause of illness and premature adult mortality (diseas burden) in many Pacific Island Countries (PICs). This research relates to trends over time in NCD risk factors in PICs from available data and trends in NCD premature mortality and effects on life expectancy. Implications for future NCD morbidity/mortality from various NCD control interventions or lack of action will be estimated using predictive statistical modelling of time trends in NCD risk factors and mortality. This will enable countries and donors to better allocate funds for NCD control and provide estimates of the consequences of intervetntion or action.