Dynamics, impacts, and future projections of El Nino and La Nina, Global climate change and variability, Indo-pacific circulation and variability.
Fields of Research (FoR)Physical Oceanography, Climate Change Processes, Atmospheric Dynamics
Agus Santoso is a senior research associate at the Climate Change Research Centre. He was awarded a PhD in 2006 by the UNSW School of Mathematics and Statistics. His research aims to unravel the mechanisms that govern climate variability on seasonal to centennial time scales. Research interests include tropical climate variability and global thermohaline circulation, in particular the dynamics and future projections of the El Nino Southern...view more
Agus Santoso is a senior research associate at the Climate Change Research Centre. He was awarded a PhD in 2006 by the UNSW School of Mathematics and Statistics. His research aims to unravel the mechanisms that govern climate variability on seasonal to centennial time scales. Research interests include tropical climate variability and global thermohaline circulation, in particular the dynamics and future projections of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Many drought and flood episodes in Australia have been attributed to ENSO and IOD. Dr Santoso is an associate investigator at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and is an editor for the Journal of Climate of the American Meteorological Society. He has served in the World Climate Research Programme CLIVAR Pacific Regional Panel and was one of project leaders at the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR; July 2017- June 2022).
Associate Investigator (July 2017 – present), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
Project co-leader (July 2017 – June 2022), Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO, Hobart
Associate Investigator (January 2013 – July 2018), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
Member, CLIVAR Pacific Panel (January 2015 – December 2017), CLIVAR Tropical Pacific decadal variability working group (January 2020 – present)
Visiting scientist, CSIRO adjunct science leader (September 2014 - July 2022); CSIRO (February 2008, February 2009, February 2010, February 2011, April 2012, November 2012, September 2022-present); Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL, Paris, 21-25 May 2012); Bandung Institute of Technology (Indonesia, 10-14 April 2017)
Guest lecturer, for Marine Science class (Oct 2014, UNSW). ‘Representation of modes of variability in climate models: a focus on ENSO', ARC Centre of Excellence Winter School, UNSW (June 17-21, 2013). Air-sea interactions master and undergraduate classes (April 2017, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia). Air-sea interaction course (SB6127), ‘Understanding El Niño Southern Oscillation’, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia (9 November 2020, virtual). ‘ENSO in a Changing Climate’, 3rd Summer School on Theory, Mechanisms and Hierarchical Modeling of Climate Dynamics: Tropical Oceans, ENSO and their teleconnections (18-29 July 2022, An ICTP Hybrid Meeting, Trieste Italy).
Coordinator of national marine science sub-theme white paper: ‘Dealing with Climate Change: Tropical Oceanography Research in Australia’, (https://www.marinescience.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Climate-change-Tropical-Oceanography.pdf).
Conference sessions convener/chair, ocean session at AOGS 2015 (Singapore), 2 sessions at AMOS 2015 (Brisbane), MSAT 2017 (Bali), AMOS 2018 (Sydney), 2 sessions at AMOS 2019 (Darwin), 2 sessions at AMOS 2020 (Fremantle), AGU Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual), 2 sessions at AMOS 2021 (virtual), 2 sessions at ICSHMO 2022 (virtual)
Meeting organiser, ENSO Workshop Australia 2015: ‘ENSO Extremes and Diversity: Dynamics, Teleconnection and Impacts’, UNSW, Sydney 4-6 Feb; ENSO Dynamics Workshop, UNSW, Sydney 20-21 Nov 2017; CSHOR ENSO Science Symposium, CSIRO, Hobart 29-31 Jan 2019, inc. book project meeting (1-2 Feb 2019); ENSO Impact on South America Workshop, UNSW, Sydney 25-27 Jun 2019
Editor (January 2021 – present), Journal of Climate
Associate editor Frontiers in Climate (Predictions and Projections) (March 2021 – present), Journal of Climate (August 2016 – December 2020)
Book editor, El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate. Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, Wenju Cai (Eds.), 21 chapters, 528 pages, AGU Monograph, ISBN: 978-1-119-54812-6.
Editorial board member, Journal of Science & Technology Indonesia
Guest editor, ENSO Special Issue in Atmosphere
Reviewer for: Journal articles [Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, J. Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, J. Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Atmospheric Science Letters, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, BAMS, J. Climate, Climate Dynamics, Climatic Change, Climate of the Past, Communications Earth &Environment, Current Climate Change Reports, Deep-Sea Research Part I, Deep-Sea Research Part II, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, Ecological Economics, Environmental Research Letters, EOS, Frontiers in Climate, Geophysical Research Letters, Int. J. Climatology, J. Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), J. Geophysical Research (Oceans), Global and Planetary Change, Nature, Nature Climate Change, Nature Communications, NPJ, J. Oceanography, Ocean Science, J. Phys. Oceanography, PLOS One, Scientific Reports, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Weather and Forecasting], book chapter [Climate Alert], and research funding proposals [ARC, NSF, NOAA CVP, DFG], book proposals [AGU Monograph]
- ENSO, IOD, and Indonesian Throughflow in CMIP models. 3rd NPOCE webinar on Roles of Western Pacific Ocean Circulation Variability in Warm Pool, 30 August 2022
- 2020-2022 La Niña and ENSO Future Projections. NESP Webinar: There and back again: the impacts of back-to-back El Niño and La Niña over the last 15 years, 18 June 2022
- ENSO, IOD, and the Indonesian Throughflow: interactions and future projections. NOAA/AOML seminar series, 21 April 2022
- El Niño Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde (IOW) Physical Oceanography Seminar, 21 December 2021
- ENSO and IOD in climate models and implications for future projections. 3rd International Conference on Maritime Sciences and Advanced Technology (MSAT), 5-6 August 2021
- Understanding Extreme ENSO Processes and Implications for Future Projections. The Oceans and Climate: Variations from Small to Global Scales, , 24-25 November 2019, Guangzhou, China
- El Niño Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming, Sydney DCO Workshop: Carbon Down Under, 24-26 July 2019, Sydney University, Australia
- El Niño Southern Oscillation: Extremes, teleconnection, and impact. South China Sea Two-Island Monsoon Experiment (SCSTIMX), 25-26 June 2018, National Taiwan University, Taipei
- The Indonesian seas and Indo-Pacific climate variability, International Symposium on Banda Sea Ecosystem, 23 October 2017, Center for Deep-Sea Research, Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Jakarta, Indonesia
- Indo-Pacific climate variability and cross-basin interactions, Climate Variability and Air-Sea Interaction Workshop, 12-13 October 2017, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Indo-Pacific climate variability and its response to greenhouse warming”, to the 1st International MSAT Conference “Ocean Science and Technology Toward a Global Maritime Axis”, Bali, Indonesia on 3–5 August 2017
- Increased frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming. EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria
- Cause for opposite propagation direction between El Niño and La Niña temperature anomalies. EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, Austria
Industry presentations (invited):
- Swiss Re Climate TEDs, virtual 28 September 2022, Presented a webinar titled ‘The rise of the 3 headed dog’
- Swiss Re seminar, Sydney, 29 October 2019, Co-presenter on ‘A fiercer bite: How will the '3 headed dog' evolve with climate change - Outlook on financial risks’
- Aerial Firefighting Asia Pacific, Adelaide, 5-6 September 2016, Presented a keynote on ‘El Niño in the Asia Pacific Rim’
- 8th Asia Sustainable Oil Palm Summit, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 4-5 August 2016, Presented: ‘El Niño and Global Warming as it impacts on agriculture like palm oil’
- ICOPE 2016 “Sustainable Palm Oil and Climate Change: The Way Forward Through Mitigation and Adaptation”, Bali, 16-18 March 2016, presented 30-minute presentation: El Niño: dynamics, impacts, and future projections.
- General Insurance Seminar ‘Insuring Tomorrow’, Sydney, 17-18 November 2014, Andrews, T., A. Pui, A. Santoso: Recent Developments in Predicting El Niño and the Implications for Insurers. General Insurance Seminar ‘Insuring Tomorrow’, Sydney, 17-18 November 2014 (http://www.actuaries.asn.au/microsites/general-insurance-seminar-2014/program/concurrent-sessions) (invited co-presenter)
- Insurance Australia Group, Sydney, May 14, 2014, Delivered a 30-minute presentation titled: ’El Niño in a warming climate’
Media engagement (more than 60 interviews, online news, TV, radio), e.g.:
Bureau of Meteorology declares third La Niña is officially under way for Australia. The Guardian. 13 September 2022.
La Niña sea temperatures driving floods in Australia and drought in the United States and Africa. ABC News. August 16, 2022
More extreme El Nino, La Nina events could drive global warming, study finds. The Straits Times. July 11, 2022
Australia flood, boosted by climate change, making history in Sydney. Washington Post. 5 July, 2022
Why is it still raining (and when will it stop)? Australian Financial Review. 5 July, 2022
What is the meaning of La Nina and how will the weather event affect Australia's summer? The Guardian. November 23, 2021
The beasts to our east: What are El Ninos and La Ninas? Sydney Morning Herald. December 29, 2020
Channel News Asia ‘Asia Tonight’ with Dawn Tan and Glenda Chong. (live TV interview) January 2, 2020
ABC News Afternoon with Kirsten Aiken Series 2018, Episode 225 (live TV interview)
El Niño is dead but La Niña is coming: Are we ready? CNN. June 15, 2016
El Niño: Feeling the heat. Financial Times. April 18, 2016
Weather experts warn a powerful El Nino drought and bushfire effect could be catastrophic for Australia. Daily Telegraph. August 27, 2015
Grim forecast as El Niño returns. Channel 7 news. May 8, 2015
World headed for an El Niño and it could be a big one, scientists say. Sydney Morning Herald. May 8, 2015
Climate change: Australia advised to brace for more devastating Indian Ocean weather events. International Business Times. June 16, 2014
Our oceans under siege. Between the lines - Channel News Asia. June 13, 2014
Cause of El Niño abnormality found. Phys Org. November 18, 2013