This is a PLuS Alliance research project, to develop tools for risk prediction of a pandemic emerging from avian influenza. This has led to development of new methodological approaches and several studies in progress with the team of Raina MacIntyre (UNSW), Matthew Scotch (ASU) and Kathleen Steinhofel (KCL).
Phylogeography and Phylodynamics, Stochastic Models and Geospatial Analysis
Web are studying the virus genome sequences that have been deposited in GenBank or or GISAID databases, and using an enhanced risk factor database of avian influenza to develop risk prediction tools for an emergent pandemic. Parameters from the phylogeography models are used to implement stochastic models for identifying risk of mutation into a human-to-human virus.Geospatial risk maps will be produced that combine outputs from our phylogeography and stochastic models.