By Dr Lachlan Astfalck

Journal articles

Milne IA; Astfalck LC; Zed M; Lee-Kopij J; Cripps E, 2026, 'Hybrid physics-data driven spectral forecasts of semisubmersible response', Ocean Engineering, 363, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.126549

Zheng Y; Rayson MD; Jones NL; Astfalck LC, 2026, 'A Machine Learning Parameterization for the Internal Gravity Wave Spectrum', Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 131, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2025JC023028

Ou R; Astfalck L; Sen D; Dunson D, 2026, 'Scalable Bayesian Inference for Time Series via Divide and Conquer', Journal of the American Statistical Association, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2026.2688950

Rayson MD; Astfalck L; Ponte ALS; Zulberti AP; Jones NL, 2025, 'Characteristic Velocity and Timescales of Nonphase-Locked Internal Tides in a Mesoscale Eddy Field', Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 130, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021789

Zheng Y; Rayson M; Jones N; Astfalck L, 2025, 'A Machine Learning Parametrisation for the Internal Gravity Wave Spectrum ', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-637

Rayson M; Jones N; Zulberti A; Astfalck L; Peng J-P; Ponte A, 2025, 'Internal waves on the Australian North West Shelf from SWOT ', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14958

Astfalck LC; Sykulski AM; Cripps EJ, 2025, 'Bias correction of quadratic spectral estimators', Biometrika, 112, http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asaf033

Ponte ALS; Astfalck LC; Rayson MD; Zulberti AP; Jones NL, 2024, 'Inferring flow energy, space scales, and timescales: Freely drifting vs. fixed-point observations', Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 31, pp. 571 - 586, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-571-2024

Astfalck LC; Sykulski AM; Cripps EJ, 2024, 'Debiasing Welch's method for spectral density estimation', Biometrika, 111, pp. 1313 - 1329, http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae033

Patterson VL; Gregoire LJ; Ivanovic RF; Gandy N; Owen J; Smith RS; Pollard OG; Astfalck LC; Valdes PJ, 2024, 'Contrasting the Penultimate Glacial Maximum and the Last Glacial Maximum (140 and 21 ka) using coupled climate-ice sheet modelling', Climate of the Past, 20, pp. 2191 - 2218, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2191-2024

Gandy N; Astfalck LC; Ives GL; Rivers GE, 2024, 'Ice sheet speed-dating: Using expert judgement to identify “good” simulations of the last glacial maximum North American ice sheets', Quaternary Science Reviews, 333, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108690

Astfalck L; Williamson D; Gandy N; Gregoire L; Ivanovic R, 2024, 'Coexchangeable Process Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification in Joint Climate Reconstruction', Journal of the American Statistical Association, 119, pp. 1751 - 1764, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2024.2325705

Pollard OG; Barlow NLM; Gregoire LJ; Gomez N; Cartelle V; Ely JC; Astfalck LC, 2023, 'Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6)', Cryosphere, 17, pp. 4751 - 4777, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023

Gandy N; Astfalck LC; Gregoire LJ; Ivanovic RF; Patterson VL; Sherriff-Tadano S; Smith RS; Williamson D; Rigby R, 2023, 'De-Tuning Albedo Parameters in a Coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to Simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum', Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 128, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023JF007250

Astfalck L; Bertolacci M; Cripps E, 2023, 'Evaluating probabilistic forecasts for maritime engineering operations', Data Centric Engineering, 4, http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dce.2023.11

Gandy N; Ives G; Rivers G; Astfalck L, 2023, 'Ice Sheet Speed-dating: Using Expert Elicitation to identify “good” simulations of the LGM North American Ice Sheets', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1401

Gregoire L; Gandy N; Astfalck L; Ivanovic R; Sherriff-Tadano S; Smith R; Williamson D, 2022, 'De-tuning a coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum ', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11503

Pollard O; Barlow N; Gregoire L; Gomez N; Cartelle V; Ely J; Astfalck L, 2022, 'Investigating the Sensitivity of North Sea Glacial Isostatic Adjustment during the Last Interglacial to the Penultimate Deglaciation of Global Ice Sheets', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8112

Loake MCA; Astfalck LC; Cripps EJ, 2022, 'Modelling sea surface wind measurements on Australia's North-West Shelf', Ocean Engineering, 244, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.110308

Astfalck L; Williamson D; Gandy N; Gregoire L; Ivanovic R, 2021, 'A Statistical Reconstruction of Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Ice Concentration for the Last Glacial Maximum', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7057

Gregoire L; Gandy N; Astfalck L; Smith R; Ivanovic R; Williamson D; Gregory J, 2021, 'Exploring the complex uncertainties in coupled climate-ice simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum', , http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6693

Masarei M; Astfalck LC; Guzzomi AL; Merritt DJ; Erickson TE, 2020, 'Soil rock content influences the maximum seedling emergence depth of a dominant arid zone grass', Plant and Soil, 450, pp. 497 - 509, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11104-020-04493-5

Astfalck LC; Cripps EJ; Hodkiewicz MR; Milne IA, 2019, 'A Bayesian approach to the quantification of extremal responses in simulated dynamic structures', Ocean Engineering, 182, pp. 594 - 607, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.04.035

Astfalck LC; Cripps EJ; Gosling JP; Milne IA, 2019, 'Emulation of vessel motion simulators for computationally efficient uncertainty quantification', Ocean Engineering, 172, pp. 726 - 736, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.11.059

Astfalck LC; Cripps EJ; Gosling JP; Hodkiewicz MR; Milne IA, 2018, 'Expert elicitation of directional metocean parameters', Ocean Engineering, 161, pp. 268 - 276, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.04.047

Astfalck L; Hodkiewicz M, 2017, 'Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Sampling for Bayesian Hierarchical Regression in Prognostics', PHM Society Asia-Pacific Conference, 1, http://dx.doi.org/10.36001/phmap.2017.v1i1.1821

Astfalck LC; Kelly GK; Li X; Sercombe TB, 2017, 'On the Breakdown of SiC during the Selective Laser Melting of Aluminum Matrix Composites', Adv. Eng. Mater., pp. 1600835 - n/a, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/adem.201600835

Sikorska J; Hodkiewicz M; D’Cruz A; Astfalck L; Keating A, 2016, 'A Collaborative Data Library for Testing Prognostic Models', PHM Society European Conference, 3, http://dx.doi.org/10.36001/phme.2016.v3i1.1579

Conference Papers

Milne IA; Astfalck LC; Zed M; Lee-Kopij J, 2025, 'Response-Based Forecasting of Vessel Motion: From Physics-Based to Data-Driven Methods', in Proceedings of the Annual Offshore Technology Conference, http://dx.doi.org/10.4043/35614-MS

Astfalck L; Hodkiewicz M; Keating A; Cripps E; Pecht M, 2016, 'A modelling ecosystem for prognostics', in Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society Phm, pp. 273 - 281

Preprints

Sharrock L; Astfalck L; Moss H, 2026, LatentFlow: A General Framework for Conditioning Stochastic Processes, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2607.12922

Zhang R-Y; Astfalck L; Cripps E; Leslie D; Moss H, 2026, Dynamic Gaussian Processes and the Vanilla-SPDE Exchange, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2606.31063

Zhang R-Y; Astfalck L; Cripps E; Leslie DS; Moss HB, 2026, BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories under Spatio-Temporal Vector Fields, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2509.26005

Moss H; Astfalck L; Cowperthwaite T; Doumont C; Willis S; Hennig P; Nemeth C; Zammit-Mangion A, 2026, Conditioning Gaussian Processes on Almost Anything, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2605.21041

Astfalck L; Sen D; Patra S; Cripps E; Dunson D, 2026, Posterior Projection for Inference in Constrained Spaces, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1812.05741

Milne I; Astfalck L; Zed M; Lee-Kopij J; Cripps E, 2026, Hybrid physics-data driven spectral forecasts of semisubmersible response, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2603.26026

Ou R; Astfalck L; Sen D; Dunson D, 2025, Scalable Bayesian inference for time series via divide-and-conquer, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2106.11043

Tang T; Astfalck L; Dunson D, 2025, Efficient Bayesian Inference for Discretely Observed Continuous Time Markov Chains, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2507.16756

Astfalck L, 2025, Universal Modelling of Autocovariance Functions via Spline Kernels, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2506.21953

Astfalck L; Sykulski A; Cripps E, 2024, Bias correction of quadratic spectral estimators, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2410.12386

Astfalck L; Bird C; Williamson D, 2024, Generalised Bayes Linear Inference, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2405.14145

Astfalck LC; Sykulski AM; Cripps EJ, 2024, Debiasing Welch's Method for Spectral Density Estimation, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2312.13643

Astfalck L; Williamson D; Gandy N; Gregoire L; Ivanovic R, 2023, Coexchangeable process modelling for uncertainty quantification in joint climate reconstruction, http://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2111.12283

Patterson VL; Gregoire LJ; Ivanovic R; Gandy N; Owen J; Smith RS; Pollard OG; Astfalck LC, Contrasting the Penultimate and Last Glacial Maxima (140 and 21 ka BP) using coupled climate-ice sheet modelling, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-10

Gandy N; Astfalck LC; Gregoire LJ; F IR; Patterson VL; Sam S-T; Smith RS; Danny W; Rigby R, De-tuning a coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512201.1

Pollard O; Barlow N; Gregoire LJ; Gomez N; Astfalck LC; McGuire A, Identifying the Antarctic melt contribution to Last Interglacial sea level from Eurasian relative sea-level records, http://dx.doi.org/10.31223/x5vf6x

Ponte ALS; Astfalck L; Rayson M; Zulberti A; Jones N, Inferring flow energy, space and time scales: freely-drifting vs fixed point observations, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-2024-10

Robinson S; Ivanovic R; Gregoire L; Astfalck L; van de Flierdt T; Plancherel Y; Pöppelmeier F; Tachikawa K, Optimisation of the marine Nd isotope scheme in the ocean component of the FAMOUS general circulation model, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-937

Pollard OG; Barlow NLM; Gregoire L; Gomez N; Cartelle V; Ely JC; Astfalck LC, Quantifying the Uncertainty in the Eurasian Ice-Sheet Geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6), http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-5

Back to profile page