Researcher

My Expertise

I am a mathematical infectious disease modeller and have particular expertise in building and calibrating compartmental models of disease transmission. I have particular expertise in modelling the impact of vaccination, including for prospective vaccines that are still in the development or clinical trials pipelines (for diseases such as COVID-19, malaria, and RSV). I have extensive experience and expertise in using modelling outputs to provide policy input for country- and global-level public health decision makers. I co-lead Australia's first infectious disease multi-model hub through ACEFA.

Keywords

Fields of Research (FoR)

Epidemiological modelling, Biological mathematics, Infectious diseases, Modelling and simulation, Respiratory diseases

Biography

As a mathematical epidemiologist, I work on developing models of infectious disease transmission and burden, and use these models to predict the public health impact of new vaccines and other interventions. The focus of my current research is to develop dynamic models to help inform longer term planning for respiratory virus immunisation strategies, including for RSV, influenza, and COVID-19, both in Australia and internationally. To do this,...view more

As a mathematical epidemiologist, I work on developing models of infectious disease transmission and burden, and use these models to predict the public health impact of new vaccines and other interventions. The focus of my current research is to develop dynamic models to help inform longer term planning for respiratory virus immunisation strategies, including for RSV, influenza, and COVID-19, both in Australia and internationally. To do this, I use mathematical models that account for current levels of transmission and immunity, the need for booster doses, properties and availability of current vaccines, the emergence of variants of concern, seasonality, and priority population groups. I am also working on a program of research quantifying RSV correlates of protection in infants and adults with collaborators at the Kirby Institute. Finally, I co-lead Australia and New Zealand's first hub for multi-model analysis of infectious disease interventions, the ACEFA Scenario Modelling Hub, with collaborators at the University of Melbourne and elsewhere.

Through my research, I aim to help guide decisions about respiratory virus vaccine programs that align with the broader immunisation and health system priorities of individual countries. Sustainable and efficient vaccination policies will ultimately reduce the large health and societal impact caused by respiratory viruses.

I have previously worked on estimating the public health impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine, supporting World Health Organization decision-making on the use of malaria vaccines in children, and on modelling the health impact of second-generation malaria vaccines in malaria endemic areas.

I am a member of the World Health Organization Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC), and the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) Scientific Advisory Committee. I was previously a Research Fellow at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London (UK).

I am funded by an NHRMC Investigator Grant (EL1) and the UNSW Scientia fellowship program.


My Grants

NSW Health Round 7 of the Prevention Research Support Program (PRSP). AU $4M (2026–2029). AI.

Shearer F et al. NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence (CRE). Australia Aotearoa Consortium for Epidemic Forecasting and Analytics (ACEFA). AU $3 million (2025–2029). CID.

Wood J et al. NHMRC Partnership Project: Integrating mathematical modelling and public health surveillance to improve control of epidemic and pandemic respiratory infections in Australia. AU $1 million (2023–2027). CIC.

Hogan AB. Mathematical modelling to support policy decisions on COVID-19 vaccination in Australia. NHMRC Investigator Grant (Emerging Leader 1). AU $650,000. (2022–2026)

Hogan AB et al. Modelling the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies. World Health Organization. US $80,000. (2021)

Imperial College Research Fellowship (2020–2022) 

Campbell PT & Hogan AB. Determining the household-level impact of a maternal vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus using an individual-based model. Centre for Research Excellence in Math Modelling to Inform Public Policy, Australia. AU $9,600. (2017–2018)

Associate Investigator, modelling to inform the WHO Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme (MVIP). PATH. (2017–2021)

Hogan AB. Australian Mathematical Society Lift-Off Fellowship. AU $3,500. (2017)


My Qualifications

PhD (Mathematical Epidemiology, Australian National University, 2017)
BSc (Applied Mathematics, Honours I, University of Sydney, 2009)


My Research Supervision


Areas of supervision

I am currently available to supervise Higher Degree Research (HDR) candidates, including for PhD programs. I have projects available related to dynamic population-level modelling of COVID-19 dynamics and vaccine impact; and modelling of future respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) impect. If you are interested in undertaking a PhD here at UNSW, please send me an email with your current CV and academic transcript.

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Location

School of Population Health
Building C29 HTH Level 5
UNSW Sydney
NSW 2052